WASHINGTON -- Minnesota will attract intense attention from national Republicans and an outsized amount of campaign cash this fall, according to NBC's Chuck Todd.
"I think the priority of national Republicans is two-fold in Minnesota. I think priority number one is the House seats. Priority number two is the House seats!" the Meet the Press host quipped in an interview with KARE recently.
"You have four House seats in play, and it’s one of the few states where Republicans can actually pick up House seats. There’s really nowhere else in the country are they actually playing on offense, other than in Minnesota."
8th District race
Congressman Rick Nolan is retiring, creating an open seat in the northern Minnesota's 8th District. That district was historically Democrat but went heavily to Donald Trump in the 2016 election.
The 8th District race pits Republican St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber against Democrat Joe Radinovich, a former state representative and Nolan staff member. When President Trump held a rally in Duluth last June, he briefly shared his microphone with Stauber.
Mining regulations have become a successful wedge issue for Republicans in parts of the Iron Range of northern Minnesota, where jobs have been hard to come by. President Trump's tariffs, while criticized by many, have given renewed hope to steel workers that taconite mining will recover.
"I wouldn't be surprised if you see the president go back to Minnesota before the election. And it will probably be back in Duluth, back on the Iron Range," Todd told KARE.
Other competitive districts
Congressman Tim Walz was able to win as a Democrat in southern Minnesota's Republican-leaning 1st District. But Walz is running for governor this year, which has given the GOP hopes of picking up that seat too.
The 1st District race features Republican Jim Hagedorn, who lost to Walz in 2014 and 2016 against Democrat Dan Feehan, an Iraq combat veteran who later worked as acting Assistant Secretary of Defense.
In the 3rd District, in the western Twin Cities metro area, long-time incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen has recently tried to distance himself from President Trump on some issues, or at least make the case that he's not in lock step with the White House.
But he faces a formidable challenge from Dean Phillips, an entrepreneur who has run Phillips Distilling, Talenti Gelato and now owns Penny's coffee shops. Phillips has already began advertising and other innovative outreach efforts.
The Koch Brothers' political organization, Americans For Prosperity, announced last week it will support Paulsen's reelection efforts.
And in Minnesota's 2nd District, southeast of the Twin Cities, freshman Republican Jason Lewis faces a rematch with his 2016 opponent, Democrat Angie Craig. Lewis was a longtime conservative talk radio host, while Craig is a former health insurance executive.
Tough to forecast
Todd pointed out that Democrats have history on their side, in that typically the incumbent president's party loses seats in Congress in midterm elections. But the Trump phenomenon has made it harder to predict this year's outcome.
"The enthusiasm is there for Democrats. And Trump obviously has alienated suburban women," Todd explained.
"The wild card in this election is can President Trump hold on his base? Do they turn out? They love him. Can he make himself enough of an issue that they feel that the mid-terms are about saving his presidency?"
The state's rural-urban divide has also proven to be a wedge issue for Republicans.
"The urban rural divide now is more than just about traffic. Now it really is two different ways people see America, and it’s two different prisms to look at America through a city lens versus a rural lens," Todd remarked.
He acknowledged many city dwellers have connections to people in rural areas, because they migrated to cities for careers or other reasons.
"They left the rural area to go to the city perhaps for opportunity of whatever, and those are the ones I think understand what’s happening better, with this rural-urban divide."
The president has his share of critics from traditional conservative circles. People such as George Will, David Brooks and Bill Kristol have openly criticized Donald Trump. But Todd said that doesn't necessarily translate to Republicans voting for the other side.
"It’s a robust intellectual debate here in Washington, but not in the grassroots. In the grassroots, the president won the debate. They’re culture warriors right now, and I would say the Trump version of the Republican party is defined by culture warriors."