MINNEAPOLIS — New numbers Thursday from the U.S. Census Bureau show Americans are changing habits on where they choose to live.
Some of the country's biggest counties saw population decreases, including the two biggest in Minnesota: Hennepin and Ramsey.
The big question we do not know the answer to, is if this is a blip due to the after effects of COVID-19, or if this is the front end of the trend.
Jana Shortal spoke with Minnesota's state demographer, Susan Brower, to ask that question.
The newest census numbers revealed the Twin Cities metropolitan area both shrank and grew in population, showing Carver, Dakota, Scott, Anoka and Washington counties with modest growth year over year during the height of the pandemic, while Hennepin and Ramsey counties showed sizeable decreases over the same time period.
"In metro areas there has been a bit of a turnaround from what we have seen last decade nationally," said Brower. "We have started to see the growth rates of the urban cores drop, as we see more growth spread to suburban areas and suburban counties."
Simply stated, the counties in which the Twin Cities reside are mimicking what has happened in several other big cities over the last few years.
New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, Miami — all saw populations go down. At the same time, small cities with less than 50,000 people saw populations go up.
"It's the pandemic that really threw a wrench into what we expected would happen with all those things with people moving, with births and deaths — that's been layered on top of what we expected," Brower said.
COVID, obviously, directly impacted the death rate, but it also impacted the birth rate.
"When there is economic uncertainty, people tend to either forgo or delay having more kids, and we've seen those numbers drop over time," Brower said.
Birth and death rates are two of the three biggest factors in change in population. The third? People moving.
"We don't know from the numbers that came out today whether the net decline in migration is because fewer people are coming to Minneapolis, or because more people are leaving," Brower said.
She says the reason we can't tell, is because the data that's been collected represents overall numbers that aren't readily separated.
"It's a net number so we are looking at the number who left Hennepin County versus the number who came to Hennepin County. But we don't know those two numbers; we just know the net number — those numbers put together," Brower said.
Will we get to know those numbers? Brower says maybe in time.
Jana also asked Brower if people left big cities in frustration after recent events like the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, increases in housing cost and rising crime rates.
Brower said that we can't prove or disprove any one person's reason for coming or going by looking at census data, because as previously mentioned, we measure population solely by numbers representing births, deaths, those coming in and those going out.
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