MINNEAPOLIS — On his way back to the White House, President-elect Donald Trump did not capture the state of Minnesota, which still has not voted for a Republican candidate since Richard Nixon in 1972.
However, compared to 2020, Trump shaved his margin of defeat from roughly seven points to four points. County-by-county results also show notable gains in Greater Minnesota. In all, the Trump-Vance ticket flipped four counties red this election: Winona, Nicollet, Carlton and Blue Earth County.
Those last two really sting for the Democrats and the Minnesota DFL.
According to the Cook Political Report, Carlton County voters had not chosen a Republican president since Herbert Hoover in 1928. Additionally, Blue Earth County is Gov. Tim Walz's home county, where he served for years as a teacher and coach in the county seat of Mankato.
Preliminary data shows Trump defeating the Harris-Walz ticket by fewer than 500 votes in Blue Earth County this year, after losing by more than 1,000 to President Biden in 2020.
Yvonne Simon, the chair of the Blue Earth County Republicans, credited her organization's ground game for flipping the county red.
"It was a lot of hard work. We did a lot of phone calling, door-knocking, events to create awareness. We also had a campaign office in Mankato where people could come in and get signs," Simon said. "What we were hearing in the campaign office was what you heard at the national level too — economy, economy, economy."
Simon said the results in Blue Earth County specifically sent a message about Gov. Walz, who attended a Mankato West football game last month and had local supporters gather to watch election results on Tuesday evening.
"Walz, in our area from my experience in living here, is not exactly appreciated for what he thinks and takes us for granted for," Simon said. "That type of value that the people of Blue Earth County had placed on what he did or didn't do, turned it, I believe."
Still, the margins were razor-thin in the four counties that Trump flipped red this year. He won all of those counties by 2,000 votes or fewer, and in Nicollet County — which borders Blue Earth — Trump won by about 100 votes (with 95 percent of precincts reporting, per NBC News). Also, it should be noted that Trump's overall performance in Minnesota still did not match his margins in 2020, when he came within two percentage points of defeating Hillary Clinton.
Even so, Democratic strategist and former DFL legislator Jeff Hayden said Trump's gains are a danger sign for his party.
"I think it really speaks to the issue in Minnesota, and nationally, where Democrats have — for some reason — really lost this relationship with working-class people," Hayden said. "Especially in Minnesota where the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party is really part of our creed. And for whatever reason, our message is not resonating with those kind of blue-collar, labor groups out there."
The results in Minnesota mirror national trends, where the Harris ticket significantly underperformed compared to Biden in 2020.
"We have to do some real work in listening to people," Hayden said, "and articulating what our platform is — and why we think this is better."