ST PAUL, Minn. — Even before the first Minnesota snowstorm of the new year, this winter has already packed its share of surprises and above-average snow totals.
By the end of December, many areas of Minnesota were already well over halfway to their average snow totals for an entire winter.
The Twin Cities have seen more than a foot more snow than average, St. Cloud snow totals are up by 10 inches and Duluth is more than 2 feet above normal.
Pete Boulay, with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources State Climatology Office, says understanding what that might mean for the rest of the winter months is difficult, especially because normal snowfall totals themselves have changed as the winter climate has warmed in the last several decades.
"The Twin Cities is a little unique," Boulay said. "We had some big storms in the 1980s when they recalculated, and seasonal snowfall has actually gone down by a few inches. It used to be around 54 inches, now it's around 51 inches. That's because we got rid of the very snowy 1980s, so that was boosting our annual snowfall up a bit. Other places like Duluth, they're seeing more snow in recent decades."
Despite those trends, the timing of this year's snow is surprising. In October, NOAA's annual winter outlook called for colder-than-average temperatures in our area with relatively average snowfall, due to La Niña conditions.
Boulay: "This is a bit surprising because the traditional La Niña winter should have a cold and snowy finish, but this had a cold and early start to the snow season."
Erdahl: "So we were expecting some of this, just not this early?"
Boulay: "Yes, not this early, this is a bit of a surprise."
Despite that early start, he says it's still too early to know how the flakes will fall by the end of winter.
"A lot can happen between now and spring," he said. "For at least right now, all the cold, bitter arctic air is locked up well north of the Canadian border. I'm not seeing any signs of a big arctic outbreak for a little while, but anything can happen in February."
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