MINNEAPOLIS — These warmer days make it easy to forget — winter is coming.
A new outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says we're in an El Niño cycle and could even be heading towards a "Super" El Niño.
A super El Niño is when water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean reach at least 2 degrees Celsius or warmer, making weather events more extreme. Those who get precipitation often get more, and those in dry zones get drier.
From December through February, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for northern Alaska, portions of the west, the Southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic, and drier-than-average conditions across the northern tier of the U.S., especially in the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes.
"The last three years we have seen La Niña winters," KARE 11 meteorologist Ben Dery said.
Dery says El Niño cycles forecast warmer temperatures and usually there is less snow, too. La Niña winters are the opposite.
"That is certainly not what we want after having three consecutive droughts back-to-back-to-back," Minnesota climatologist, Luigi Romolo said.
Romolo is looking ahead to next spring. He says the more precipitation we can get during the winter, the more ends up in the soil after it melts.
During an El Niño, Romolo says Minnesota usually gets 10-12 inches less snow and experiences temps about 1.5 degrees above average.
"There have been El Niños where we have seen average to above average amounts of snow, like 1991. The year of the Halloween Blizzard," Romolo said.
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