MINNEAPOLIS — The first time Don Samuels challenged Representative Ilhan Omar for her seat in Congress, a hot issue had just been on the ballot.
"Defund police" was a mantra some Minneapolis voters believed in, and many equated that with a Nov. 2021 ballot question that would have fundamentally changed the structure of the Minneapolis Police Department.
Congresswoman Omar supported that ballot question and Samuels opposed it — and it proved to be unpopular with voters as well.
After the measure went down in the Nov. 2021 election, Congresswoman Omar almost did too in the Democratic primary the following summer. She defeated Samuels by just 2,466 votes — 2% of the total.
"And Samuels was able to mobilize the frustration with Ilhan Omar to his advantage," said political scientist Larry Jacobs with the University of Minnesota.
Jacobs said says a key difference with this year's rematch is that there is no similar issue driving voters.
"So Don Samuels has his work cut out for him," Jacobs said.
It seems every race that involves Omar receives a lot of attention locally, statewide, and nationally.
"Ilhan Omar is a controversial figure in the U.S. She draws quite a bit of attention. Her comments for instance on Palestinians and Israel was a national news story just a few months ago," Jacobs said.
So far this primary cycle, two members of Omar's left-wing coalition in Congress known as The Squad — Cori Bush of Missouri and Jamaal Bowman of New York — have lost to fellow Democratic opponents.
Those opponents received large infusions of campaign cash from the American Israel Political Affairs Committee, otherwise known as AIPAC.
Jacobs said the biggest difference in Minnesota is that Samuels didn't receive as much money in donations.
"The didn't do it. And I think one reason is they didn't think he could beat her," Jacobs said. "The key thing in this race is Ilhan Omar has a four-fold advantage of money. She won the endorsement which is big, and she's been running elections now for 8 years. So she's built up a real organization and I think she got a scare back in 2022 and it looks like she's really working this election."
While Jacobs has Samuels pegged as a large underdog Tuesday, the former Minneapolis City Councilmember says he feels more momentum that he did two years ago.
"There is kind of a movement quality to this campaign," Samuels said.
When asked whether he is a progressive, Samuels answered, "I'm a pragmatic progressive."
In the Democratic stronghold that is Congressional District 5, the winner of this primary is expected by everyone to coast to victory in November.
Because of that, some conservative voices including the popular Twitter account Crimewatch are encouraging Republicans to vote for Samuels. Minnesota has open primaries so voters can choose which ballot to use without having to register with a party.
When asked how he responds to that and what he would say to those potential voters, Samuels responded, "I would say Ilhan Omar continues to drive people who try to oust her. I take no responsibility for that."
At the same time, Congresswoman Omar's supporters say the potential GOP support for Samuels shows that Omar is the true choice for Democrats.
Omar's campaign declined an interview for this story.