What the regime change in Bangladesh could mean to the U.S.
“The nightmare in Washington has to be if Bangladesh falls out of India’s orbit and aligns with China," said Andrew Lathum.
Ehfazul Haque has spent the much of the summer in a state of worry.
A worry for his family, worry for his fellow international students, but above all else, he worried for his country.
Bangladesh, the eighth-most populous nation on the planet, saw a summer of violent clashes between civilians and government forces.
Those tense and often fatal clashes and protests ended when the nation's longest-serving Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, abdicated her role and fled the country in early August.
Hope for international students
"That was the moment of hope for us," Haque tells KARE 11 in his off-campus apartment on Fourth Street in Minneapolis.
Haque, who leads the Bangladeshi Students Association at the University of Minnesota, spent the summer organizing events with his fellow students to bring more awareness to mass protests that were occurring in his homeland.
“The approach of the protests was peaceful demonstrations across Dhaka and the entire country,” said Haque, who blames the government for escalating matters by shooting into crowds of protesters and attacking others in the streets of the Bangladeshi capital.
The protests were the result of a government policy that created a quota system for employment, essentially reserving large percentages of jobs for specific minority groups.
One of the most controversial of the minority groups on the receiving end of the quota system was the descendants of freedom fighters.
In theory, the system would have reserved around 30% of jobs for the children and grandchildren of the people who fought for Bangladeshi independence in 1971.
In reality, Haque says, there was no guarantee who would really be receiving the benefits.
"Anyone could buy or sell a piece of paper that qualified them as a descendant of the freedom fighters," said Haque.
Frustration from students, who were set to enter the job market, eventually boiled over and led to demonstrations on public streets throughout Dhaka.
Intrigue in New Delhi, Concern in Washington D.C.
But the ramifications of the regime change in Dhaka could have far more reaching effects internationally, according to Andrew Lathum, who teaches foreign policy at Macalester College in St. Paul.
“The broader regional ramifications are not just how this will affect Bangedshi and Indian relations, but also the entire Bay of Bengal,” said Lathum.
India and Bangladesh have worked to strengthen their ties over the past decade and Lathum believes another regional superpower could make a play to add the Southeast Asian country into its orbit.
“The nightmare in Washington has to be if Bangladesh falls out of India’s orbit and aligns with China," said Lathum.
After the previous prime minister fled the country, renowned economist Mohammed Yunis was appointed as the interim leader.
“Which way is the new government going to break?” asked Lathum, before adding that he thinks it's likely the next full-term prime minister will follow in the steps of Sheikh Hasina in terms of her more-than-cordial relationship with India.
Optimism and uncertainty
Haque hopes the worst of his worries are behind him.
"We're happy that the dictator is gone," he said.
Haque's sister was a member of the protests and survived without serious injury, but as the interim government adjusts to their new roles a feeling of unease has crept into Haque's celebratory mood.
The fall of the previous regime, coupled with the hardline tactics that it employed against protesters has seemingly ignited pockets of retaliatory violence in Bangladesh.
That violence led to a call for peace for Haque's UMN group:
"We strongly condemn the heinous attacks being perpetrated against the common people, including religious and ethnic minorities (Hindus, Buddhists, Christians, the Chittagong Hill Tracts and others), government officials, police and many others," reads a statement on the group's Facebook page.