ST PAUL, Minn. — With less than two months until Election Day, a new KARE 11-MPR News-Minnesota Star Tribune Minnesota Poll finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in the battle for Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes.
The poll of 800 registered, likely Minnesota voters found 48% of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic Party ticket of incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz if the election were held today, while 43% of those polled said they would vote for the Republican ticket of former President Donald Trump and Ohio Sen. JD Vance; 2% said they would support another candidate, and 7% said they were undecided.
As might be expected, Democrats largely backed Harris (94%) and Republicans largely backed Trump (92%). In comparison, independents narrowly favored Trump (43%) to Harris (41%), though a sizeable 14% of independent voters poll said they remain undecided.
The poll results show a divide between urban voters and voters in the suburbs and greater Minnesota: Harris leads Trump by a wide margin in Minnesota’s two most populous counties of Hennepin and Ramsey (64% for Harris to 28% for Trump), while Trump leads Harris in the Twin Cities suburbs (48% to 43%), northern Minnesota (53% to 40%) and southern Minnesota (52% to 40%).
Men were more likely to support former President Trump (53% to 37%) while women were more likely to back Harris (59% to 35%).
The poll found candidate support broke nearly even among white voters, with 46% supporting Trump and 45% supporting Harris; however, non-white voters were far more likely to support Harris (72%) than Trump (20%).
The statewide results show Harris with a slight 1% increase on President Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump from June’s Minnesota Poll, conducted one month before Biden withdrew from the race. June’s poll showed Biden with a four-point lead over Trump (45% to 41%); however, the June poll also showed 6% support for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who has since suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump, but officially remains on the ballot in Minnesota. Harris picked up three percentage points over Biden’s June polling, while Trump added two percentage points.
VOTER ENTHUSIASM
While overall the point spread is statistically similar from June to September, the new Minnesota Poll does show a significant increase in enthusiasm among voters since June, particularly among those backing the Democratic ticket. The poll found 76% of respondents said they were “very enthusiastic” about their preferred presidential candidate, which included 79% of Harris supporters and 73% of Trump supporters.
Back in June, the previous Minnesota Poll found just 44% of voters were “very enthusiastic” about their candidate, with twice as many Trump supporters (62%) as Biden supporters (31%) saying they were “very enthusiastic” at that time.
CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY
Voters’ opinions about the candidates continue to largely fall along party lines.
The Minnesota Poll found 46% of those surveyed have a favorable opinion of former President Donald Trump, while 53% reported an unfavorable opinion. The poll found 96% of Republicans viewed Trump favorably, compared to just 3% of Democrats. Only 2% of Republicans surveyed viewed Trump unfavorably, compared to 97% of Democrats.
Opinions of Vice President Harris were statistically similar, with 47% of those polled having a favorable opinion and 51% with an unfavorable opinion. Of those polled, 91% of Democrats had a favorable opinion of Harris, compared to just 2% of Republicans; meanwhile, 8% of Democrats viewed Harris unfavorably, compared to 95% of Republicans.
ISSUES: THE ECONOMY
Minnesotans remain divided on their opinions about the state of the economy in the U.S. Only 4% said current economic conditions are “excellent,” while 27% rated the economy as “good.” Another 27% said it was “fair,” and 41% said the economy is “poor.” Republicans were more likely than Democrats to rate the economy as poor (68% of Republicans vs. 12% of Democrats).
The Minnesota Poll found voters were more likely to trust former President Trump to handle the economy (52%) than Vice President Harris (45%).
ISSUES: ABORTION
The KARE 11-MPR News-Minnesota Star Tribune Minnesota Poll asked voters whether they thought laws regarding abortion rights and restrictions should be handled by states or the federal government. Those favoring state control (48%) were narrowly ahead of those who prefer federal control (46%), with 6% stating they were unsure.
On the subject of abortion, the poll found more voters were likely to trust Vice President Harris to handle issues regarding abortion (53%) than former President Trump (42%).
ISSUES: IMMIGRATION
A majority of those surveyed in the Minnesota Poll said they feel the issue of illegal immigration is a “very serious” (47%) or “somewhat serious” (32%) problem for the country, while just 16% said it was “not too serious” and 5% said it was “not at all serious.” Republicans overwhelmingly said it was a “very serious” issue (87%) compared to just 8% of Democrats.
The immigration issue continues to favor former President Trump, with 53% of those polled saying they trust him more to handle immigration issues, compared to 45% who said Vice President Harris would handle immigration better.
ISSUES: PROTECTING DEMOCRACY
Most Minnesotans appear to be concerned about the future of democracy in the United States. The Minnesota Poll found 68% of those surveyed feel democracy is under threat right now, compared to 25% who said it is not. The majorities who expressed concern about democracy extended across all parties (81% of Democrats, 58% of Republicans, 64% of independents), genders (63% of men, 73% of women), races (67% of white voters, 74% of non-white voters), ages (69% of those under 50, 68% of those over 50%) and education demographics (68% of those without a college degree and 69% of those with a college degree).
On the topic of democracy, a narrow majority of those polled said they trust Kamala Harris more to protect democracy (51%) over Donald Trump (45%).
U.S. SENATE RACE
Minnesota voters will also cast a ballot for the U.S. Senate in November, with Democratic incumbent Amy Klobuchar seeking a fourth term in office, facing off against activist and former NBA player Royce White running for the Republican Party.
The Minnesota Poll found Klobuchar with a nine-point lead over White (51% to 40%) with 8% of voters still undecided.
The poll found near universal support for Klobuchar among Democrats polled (99%), while White had 83% support among Republicans. Independents broke narrowly for White (44%) over Klobuchar (43%), though 12% of independents and 12% of Republicans are among the undecided.
A majority of women support Klobuchar (62%) over White (31%), while more men support White (50%) over Klobuchar (39%).
METHODOLOGY
This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Jacksonville, Florida from September 16 through September 18, 2024. A total of 800 registered voters in Minnesota were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were likely to vote in the 2024 presidential election.
Those interviewed were selected randomly from a telephone-matched Minnesota voter registration list that included both landline and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.
