MINNEAPOLIS — The 2024 presidential election is unique in many ways: a rematch of 2020 featuring two major party candidates over the age of 75, with one recently convicted of felony criminal charges and the other dogged by ongoing unproven allegations of the legitimacy of his previous win.
A new KARE 11/MPR News/Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, which recently found Democratic President Joe Biden leading Republican former President Donald Trump among registered likely voters in Minnesota, also asked voters their opinions on those unique issues facing voters in 2024.
ARE THE CANDIDATES TOO OLD?
President Joe Biden will be 82 years old on Inauguration Day 2025, and would break his own record as the oldest president inaugurated if he's re-elected. Former President Trump will be 78 on that day, tying Biden's previous Inauguration Day record from 2021 if he defeats his successor and returns to office.
Both candidates have faced questions about their age, and the KARE 11/MPR News/Star Tribune Minnesota Poll found a majority of Minnesota likely voters (52%) believe both men are too old to run for the job. Among the remaining respondents, 25.3% said they believe Joe Biden is too old, while only 1.6% said they believe only Donald Trump is too old. A little more than 20% of those polled said neither are too old for the job.
Along party lines, a majority of Republicans (55.8%) and nearly a quarter of independents (23.4%) think Joe Biden is too old, though none of the Democrats polled said so. A little less than 3% of Democrats and less than 2% of independents said Donald Trump was too old, with no Republicans agreeing with that statement. A majority of Democrats (62.8%) and independents (65.1%) and a quarter of Republicans (25.7%) said both men are too old for the job; while 34% of Democrats, 18.5% of Republicans and 7.8% of independents say neither are too old.
TRUMP'S LEGAL TROUBLES
Last month, Donald Trump became the first former president to be convicted of felony criminal charges, after a New York jury found him guilty of falsifying business documents. The former president plans to appeal, and the conviction will not prevent him from running for president, or taking office if he wins.
The KARE 11/MPR News/Star Tribune Minnesota Poll found a majority of respondents (54.4%) believe Donald Trump received a fair trial, while 44.4% believe he did not.
A near-universal majority of Democrats (98.2%) and majority of independents (52%) believe the former president had a fair trial, compared to just 7.2% of Republicans. Just over 91% of Republicans said the trial was not fair, as did 47.2% of independents and less than 1% of Democrats.
The poll also asked if a convicted felon should be eligible for the presidency; a majority of those polled (54.8%) said they should not, while 37.1% said they should be eligible.
Broken down by party, a majority of Republicans (76.7%) said a convicted felon should be eligible for the presidency, compared to 36.8% of independents and 2.5% of Democrats. Meanwhile, a large majority of Democrats (94%) and a majority of independents (52.8%) believe a convicted felon should not be eligible for the presidency, compared to 12.4% of Republicans.
BIDEN'S 2020 WIN
While former President Trump and many of his most vocal Republican supporters continue to falsely claim that the 2020 election was "stolen," such allegations have never been proven. However, a portion of likely voters, primarily Republicans, continue to believe that President Joe Biden's 2020 victory was not legitimate.
The Minnesota Poll found a majority of voters (68.5%) believe President Biden's 2020 win was legitimate, while 25.4% think it was not. A little over 6% of respondents said they weren't sure.
Among Democrats, 99.6% said President Biden won legitimately in 2020, with none of the Democratic respondents saying he did not. On the Republican side, a majority (57%) believe Biden's 2020 win was not legitimate, while 30.5% said they believe it was. A majority of independents (71%) said they believe Joe Biden won legitimately in 2020, compared to 22.7% who said he did not.
Across all other demographics, majorities of respondents said Biden won legitimately in 2020, including men (54.8%), women (80.9%), young voters age 18-34 (72.6%), age 35-49 (71.6%), age 50-64 (69%), seniors 65+ (62%), college graduates (74.5%), non-college graduates (62.9%), metro counties (84.6%), metro suburbs (60%), southern Minnesota (62.3%) and northern Minnesota (60%).
METHODOLOGY
This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Jacksonville, Florida from June 3 through June 5, 2024. A total of 800 registered voters in Minnesota were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were likely to vote in the 2024 presidential election.
Those interviewed were selected randomly from a telephone-matched Minnesota voter registration list that included both land line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means there is a 95% probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.
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