MINNEAPOLIS — While unveiling his new running mate this week on the social media platform Truth Social, former President Donald Trump described Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as a candidate who "will be strongly focused" on voters in critical states across the Rust Belt and Upper Midwest.
In his post, Trump mentioned some obvious swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — as well as the traditional swing state of Ohio that has gone deeply red in recent years.
He also mentioned Minnesota.
While no Republican presidential candidate has won Minnesota since Richard Nixon in 1972, the Associated Press reported on Tuesday that the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee view the state as clearly in play, with both Minnesota and Virginia now having "been added to their battleground plans" as Vance joins the fold.
Trump expressed the same optimism four years ago. After losing by fewer than two percentage points to Hillary Clinton in 2016, Trump made multiple stops in Minnesota during the general election campaign in 2020 but ended up losing ground to President Joe Biden with a roughly seven-point defeat here — performing worse than even former President George W. Bush did with Minnesota voters both in 2000 and 2004.
This time around, with 16 weeks until the 2024 presidential election, a collection of polls shows Biden somewhere in the middle of the 2016 and 2020 results, leading Trump by an average of four points. (Some of Trump's own polling has shown the former president with the lead over Biden). Meanwhile, the nonpartisan Center for Politics at the University of Virginia classifies Minnesota as a state that "leans Democratic," although that ranking was downgraded from "likely Democratic" after Biden's debate performance last month.
Brian McClung, a KARE 11 political analyst and former press secretary to Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, told KARE 11 last week that Minnesota "is probably more firmly in play" this election cycle as opposed to the last one.
"But, we should be clear, if Minnesota is in play, that means Donald Trump has won in a landslide," McClung said. "That means that the six key battleground states have probably all gone Trump and now you're talking about states like Minnesota, Virginia and New Hampshire as possibilities."
Ken Martin, who chairs the Minnesota DFL Party and also serves as a vice chair for the Democratic National Committee, acknowledged in an interview Tuesday that "this race for the presidency in Minnesota is going to be close" but vowed not to allow the Trump campaign to flip the state red. While some elected Democrats — like Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig — have called for Biden to step aside to improve the party's chances in November, Martin has not withdrawn the statewide party's support of the president.
"Right now, President Biden has said he's our nominee and I don't expect that to change," Martin said. "We're going to do everything we can."
Martin described the Minnesota DFL, Biden campaign and Democratic National Committee as "making deep investments" here.
"We have over 25 offices open around the state, dozens of organizers on the ground and thousand of volunteers having conversations day in and day out with voters at the doors about their hopes and aspirations for the future of this country," Martin said. "Unlike the Republican Party and Donald Trump's campaign who are talking a big game, of course, of flipping Minnesota. But as of today there's really no investment on the ground in this state by Donald Trump."
Minnesota GOP Executive Director Anna Mathews, countered that argument in a separate interview Tuesday. She said national Republicans are also opening offices, hiring staff and pouring financial resources into Minnesota.
"The energy is high, and I think the difference is all of our volunteers, activists, delegates -- people are working," Mathews said. "I'm personally very excited about our chances and you can feel it on the ground."
She also said Trump's selection of Vance as running mate can help his appeal in Minnesota.
"Minnesota's Iron Range is very different from the Twin Cities, much more similar to Ohio, Pennsylvania, more of those Rust Belt areas," Mathews said. "Yes, I do think it will help. I also think just across the board, having a fighter, having someone young, having someone who is a bit of a political outsider... that will help the ticket as well and help Trump's chances."
Vance, who began his rise as a public figure nearly a decade ago by writing the book "Hillbilly Elligy," is still largely unknown among the American electorate. A CNN poll last month revealed that a majority of voters either "had never heard of him or had no opinion."
Martin called Trump's pick of Vance "a little bit surprising."
"If they feel that this is going to help them put states like Minnesota in play, it's certainly not a recipe that's worked in the past," Martin said. "When Minnesota Republicans have nominated really far-right, extremist candidates who don't actually represent the majority of Minnesotans' viewpoints, it hasn't worked for them. They haven't won a statewide election in some time."