MINNEAPOLIS — Six months ahead of the November midterms, the revelation of Roe v. Wade possibly being overturned has dealt a new twist to federal and state politics.
In just 189 days, Americans will head to the polls to cast votes in every U.S. House race and about one-third of U.S. Senate races, as Republicans look to seize power back from the Democrats in both chambers of Congress. Voters also have big decisions to make in their state legislatures and in 36 gubernatorial races, including Minnesota and Wisconsin.
It's too early to speculate about the political impact of the leaked Roe v. Wade draft, and it's impossible to say with any certainty whether it will help one side more than the other.
At an abortion-rights rally in downtown Minneapolis on Tuesday, however, it became clear that the abortion debate will occupy an important role in November.
Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who is running for re-election with Gov. Tim Walz, clarified the administration's position on abortion while speaking to a crowd of a few hundred people in front of the federal courthouse. Multiple Republican candidates vying for the nomination in the primary have gone on record as strongly anti-abortion.
"We will not go backwards," Flanagan said. "Gov. Walz is crystal clear on what his role is — to protect access to abortions for all Minnesotans."
Minnesota's state constitution includes these protections due to a 1995 State Supreme Court ruling, making it difficult (though not impossible) for Republicans to ban or severely restrict abortions even if they were to take control of the House and governorship in November. However, with the potential overturning of Roe v. Wade putting states in charge of abortion policy, all or most of Minnesota's surrounding states in the Upper Midwest could be poised to enact restrictions.
The midterms will also determine which party can set the nationwide agenda in Washington on abortion. Even though Democrats currently hold both chambers of Congress and have passed legislation in the U.S. House protecting abortion federally, their razor-thin majority in the Senate cannot overcome a Republican filibuster. Plus, without support of crucial swing votes like Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Democrats also don't appear to have the votes to end the filibuster either.
"I think it will make people angry to learn that politicians believe they know better than the individuals about what health care they can access," said Jess Braverman, the legal director at Gender Justice and a featured speaker at the downtown Minneapolis rally on Tuesday. "I do believe it will galvanize people."
However, if you ask Republicans or longtime abortion-rights activists, that galvanizing force may cut the other way, too.
At a news conference on Tuesday, Republican State Senator and former gubernatorial candidate Michelle Benson pointed out that these activists have been fighting to overturn Roe v. Wade for years.
"The pro-life movement within the Republican Party has always been engaged," Benson said. "And this will be more reason for them to engage."
Some Republican strategists also remain unconvinced that the leaked SCOTUS draft will help Democrats. One of those strategists, speaking anonymously with NBC News, said "Democrats are hoping they'll be able to use this issue to get voters to forget they're paying $4 for a gallon of gas and double what they've been paying at the grocery store and they'll stop caring about violent crime and the open border."
Another, meanwhile, said "there's a chance that Democrats could overstep the bounds here" if they place too much of an emphasis on a singular issue like abortion.
The country will have to wait until November to find out the true political impact.
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