CHANHASSEN, Minn. — The threat of major spring flooding remains high along portions of the St. Croix and Mississippi Rivers in the Twin Cities metro area, according to the latest outlook from the National Weather Service.
"Most locations on the Mississippi from St. Cloud downstream are likely to reach moderate flood stage, with sites from St. Paul to Red Wing more likely to reach Major Flood Stage," NWS forecasters wrote.
One of the main factors is how much snow we still have on the ground this late in the season. The later the snowpack lingers, the better the chances of a big warm-up that would rapidly melt the snow.
The updated outlook shows an 81% probability of the St. Croix River reaching major flood stage (above 89 ft.) in Stillwater, with a greater than 95% chance of reaching minor flood stage (87 ft.).
The probability of major flood stage is now at 47% for the Mississippi River in St. Paul, a slight decrease from the previous forecast two weeks ago, "but still quite high," according to the NWS.
Red Wing has a 69% chance of major flood stage on the Mississippi River, according to the forecast.
Significant flooding also remains in the forecast for several communities outside of the metro area, including the Minnesota River at Montevideo (25% chance of major flood stage, greater than 95% chance of at least minor flood stage), the Minnesota River at Savage (27% chance of major flood stage, greater than 95% chance of at least minor flood stage), the Mississippi River in St. Cloud (31% chance of major flooding, 89% chance of reaching minor flood stage), and the South Fork of the Crow River at Delano (30% chance of major flood stage, 87% chance of minor flood stage).
There is some possible good news in the latest flood outlook, however; National Weather Service forecasters said the 7-10 day patterns for temps and precipitation are "favorable for a slow melting period through the end of March," but the threat of major flooding remains dependent on rain and temperature patterns into April.
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