MINNEAPOLIS — New research out of the University of Minnesota (U of M) says winters here are warming faster than any state in the U.S., and could be as much as 11 degrees warmer by the end of this century.
The study, led by Department of Soil, Water and Climate researcher Dr. Stefan Liess, was published in the journal of Earth and Space Science. To reach their results, researchers performed simulations of Minnesota's climate using two different scenarios for global emissions of greenhouse gases that have been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The resulting data, gathered in a partnership with the Minnesota Supercomputing Institute, was projected over six mile by six mile areas in counties across the state, more precise than most global climate models. Researchers say this method yields more detailed information on how temperatures and precipitation are expected to change at specific locations.
Among the findings:
- Spring precipitation could increase by more than half an inch per day over northern Minnesota.
- Snow depth could decrease by more than five inches, especially in central eastern Minnesota.
- The number of days per year with snow cover may decrease by up to 55, especially in central Minnesota.
The study predicts that summer temperatures will also trend higher, and could be an average of seven degrees warmer by the year 2100.
"Mitigation and adaptation strategies need to be put in place to address these future changes," explained Dr. Liess in a released statement. "These projections would impact multiple important state sectors including agriculture, pest management, water and energy management, forestry, health care (adaptation to heat related health issues) and tourism.”
The next step in the project is using the data to project future crop yields and the frequency of extreme climate events.
Funding for the project was provided by the Minnesota Environment and Natural Resources Trust Fund.
Concerns over future changes in Minnesota's climate and the impact on the natural world are increasingly in the headlines. On Tuesday Cook County commissioners passed a resolution declaring a climate emergency after being prompted by two teenaged activists and nature lovers from Grand Marais.
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