ST PAUL, Minn. — Minnesota politics have been thrust into the national spotlight since Vice President Kamala Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be her running mate for the 2024 presidential election.
While Walz has been introducing himself to the rest of the country as the second half of the Democratic party ticket, Minnesotans are more familiar with the former school teacher and Congressman from southern Minnesota.
A new KARE 11-MPR News-Minnesota Star Tribune Minnesota Poll of likely voters finds Harris leading former President Donald Trump in the race for the White House; however, opinions are split on Walz and the work he's done as Minnesota governor.
VOTER OPINIONS OF GOV. WALZ
According to the poll, Minnesotans are almost evenly split in their opinion of Gov. Tim Walz. The survey found 48% of those polled rated Walz favorably and 47% rated him unfavorably, with 5% not sure.
Walz's favorable ratings were highest among Democrats (92% favorable, 6% unfavorable, 2% not sure), while his unfavorable ratings were highest among Republicans (93% unfavorable, 3% favorable, 4% not sure). Independents leaned unfavorable (50%) over favorable (42%) with 8% unsure.
Women were more likely to rate Walz positively (57% favorable, 38% unfavorable) than men (57% unfavorable, 38% favorable). Younger voters also viewed Walz more favorably (52% favorable, 44% unfavorable) than voters over age 50 (49% unfavorable, 45% favorable).
WALZ'S RECORD
Separately, the KARE 11-MPR News-Minnesota Star Tribune Minnesota Poll asked voters for their opinion of Tim Walz's job performance as governor. On this question, a majority of those polled approved of his job performance (53%), while 44% disapproved and 2% said they weren't sure. Once again, Democrats gave Walz the highest approval ratings (94% approve, 5% disapprove), while Republicans gave the lowest marks (95% disapprove, 5% approve). A majority of independent voters polled (52%) approved of Gov. Walz's job performance.
The poll found voters split on some of Walz's biggest decisions as governor. When asked about his handling of the protests and riots following the murder of George Floyd in 2020, a majority of those polled (52%) said they disapproved, while 44% approved and 4% said they were not sure. Republicans almost universally disapproved (98%), along with 12% of Democrats and 55% of independents; however, 83% of Democrats approved of Walz's handling of the situation, along with 40% of independents.
Geographically, a majority of voters in Hennepin and Ramsey County (56%) approved of the governor's handling of these events, while majorities in all other regions disapproved.
Walz scored higher marks for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 52% of those polled approving of his job performance on that subject, and 46% disapproving. Once again, the approval numbers were highest in Hennepin and Ramsey counties (69%), while majorities in other regions disapproved.
Voters were also asked for their opinion on the governing of the DFL "trifecta" with the governor's office, Minnesota House and Minnesota Senate for the past two years. Of those polled, 49% said they approve of the way Tim Walz and Democrats have governed the state, while 47% disapprove, and 5% said they're not sure.
VOTER OPINIONS OF SEN. JD VANCE
Walz's counterpart on the opposing ticket is Ohio Sen. JD Vance, running as the GOP's vice presidential nominee alongside former President Donald Trump.
The Minnesota Poll found 42% of those surveyed had a favorable opinion of Vance, compared to 48% with an unfavorable opinion. Ten percent said they were not sure.
Like the Walz favorability ratings, the results for Vance largely fall on party lines, with 93% of Republicans reporting a favorable view of the Ohio Senator, compared to just 2% of Democrats and 40% of independents. Meanwhile, just 2% of Republicans had an unfavorable view of Vance, compared to 91% of Democrats and 45% of independents. The independent voters are also the largest bloc who were not sure about Vance (16%), compared to 8% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans.
VOTER OPINIONS OF LT. GOV. FLANAGAN
If Walz is elected vice president, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan would ascend to the Minnesota governor's office. If it were to happen, Flanagan would make history as the first woman to hold the state's highest office, and the first Native American woman to serve as governor anywhere in the U.S.
The KARE 11-MPR News-Minnesota Star Tribune Minnesota Poll finds many voters may not know enough about the state's current lieutenant governor to have an opinion about her. The poll found 35% of those surveyed reported a favorable opinion of Flanagan, while just 18% had an unfavorable opinion. However, nearly half of those polled, 47%, said they weren't sure.
Flanagan's favorability was highest within her own party, with 68% of Democrats reporting a favorable opinion of her, and just one-percent of Democrats reporting an unfavorable opinion; however, even among Democrats, 31% said they weren't sure. Republicans had a higher unfavorable rating (37%) than favorable (12%) but the majority were not sure (52%). Independents were also mostly unsure (59%) with favorable (21%) and unfavorable (20%) almost evenly split.
MINNESOTA LEGISLATURE
Minnesota voters appear evenly divided in their opinion on which party they'd like to see win control of the Minnesota House of Representatives in the 2024 election. The poll found 49% of those surveyed would like the DFL to retain control of the House, while 48% would like to see control flip to the GOP. Four percent of those poll said they weren't sure.
METHODOLOGY
This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Jacksonville, Florida from September 16 through September 18, 2024. A total of 800 registered voters in Minnesota were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were likely to vote in the 2024 presidential election.
Those interviewed were selected randomly from a telephone-matched Minnesota voter registration list that included both landline and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.
